Between Rhetoric and Reality; Will Tigers go to war?

Is war imminent? Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam political commissar Suppiah Paramu Thamilselvan is seemingly of the opinon that war is indeed imminent! On July 17th the LTTE political wing head addressed the press at Kilinochchi . Two relevant questions and answers are excerpted below. " Q. Can we assume that peace efforts have reached an end? A: We are rapidly moving to such an eventuality. Q. Tamil people appear to sense that war is imminent. Your thoughts? A: Their fear is not misplaced. I believe that the Tamil people have a correct view of the current situation". Earlier Tamilchelvan and a few other tiger political wingers including Jaffna and Vavuniya political commissars Ilamparithi and Gnanam had met with 21 Parliamentarians of the Tamil National Alliance in a four hour session . The only MP absent was "Kudirai" Gajendran doing political work in Australia for many weeks. During this meeting Thamilselvan explained the current situation to the TNA MP's. One thing that came out clear in the meeting was that the LTTE was actively considering resumption of war. According to news reports only Rajavarothayam Sambandan of Trincomalee and Suresh Premachandran of Jaffna dared to question the LTTE wisdom in going to war now. In the end everyone concurred and Sambandan addressing the media echoed the tiger viewpoint faithfully. The LTTE has been orchestrating various demonstrations, rallies etc in the North where the "People" have been urging the Tamil National Leader Velupillai Pirapakaran to go to war. Several petitions to that effect have also been sent to the supremo. Tiger leaders have been responding to these requests by urging "patience". Nevertheless these LTTE personalities have said that the "patience" of the people is diminishing and that war could be an eventuality. An interesting development in this regard was the much publicised commemorative meeting on the 22nd death anniversary of Charles Anthony alias Aseer alias Seelan on July 15th. So great is Pirapas regard for Charles Anthony that he named his first born and pioneering infantry brigade after him. In a remarkable display of military muscle more than a dozen high - ranking tiger commanders connected with the Charles Anthony brigade were present and also posed obligingly for the camera. The highlight of that function was the public address by the dreaded intelligence chief Pottu Amman. The man who usually shuns the limelight went public. The tiger media made it a point to convey Pottus views to all corners of the Sri Lankan Tamil "world". Accusing the Sri Lankan forces of trying to instigate the LTTE into breaking the ceasefire,Pottu warned that war could break out at any moment "today, tomorrow, next week or some days later". He also said that the Tamil problem could never be resolved through the "magnanimity of the Sinhala people or the reasonableness of Sinhala governments". The LTTE has also made other moves suggesting preparation for war. Thamilselvan for instance made a lightning visit to Mannar where he "advised" Political activists to suspend political work and focus on recruitment. At least 3000 new cadres have been deployed at the Kilaly - Eluthumattuvaal - Nagar Kovil axis frontlines. In The Eastern Province the LTTE has withdrawn all "visible" cadres from Government controlled areas. The so called political work done by them has ceased. Only the "invisible" assassination squads remain. It is obvious from all these acts that the LTTE is getting ready for war. What is really peculiar about all this is that the LTTE known for its "secrecy" is making no effort to conceal these intentions. If the LTTE was really planning to resume full - scale war then it would no doubt like to use the element of surprise to the fullest advantage. But now the tigers are making no effort to downplay the possibility of war. In fact the LTTE is deliberately projecting an image of war being thrust upon the tigers and their being ready for it. Thamilchelvan says " The military is on a relentless campaign to provoke us into war. Harassment and threat to our cadres by the security forces have escalated................Although we detest war if the security forces thrust the war on us, we will be prepared to defend ourselves" Though the LTTE takes up the aggrieved party stance and feigns hurt innocence it cannot be denied that tiger hands are not clean either. It was the LTTE that began a campaign of killing political dissidents and para - military personnel immediately after the ceasefire. Now the Karuna faction is striking back and the LTTE tries to take the moral high ground. Even on the Karuna matter it was the LTTE that called it an internal issue and warned others not to intervene. With Karuna gaining the upper hand the tigers have started wailing. While the LTTE threatens resumption of war it is also talking of a new project. The TNA has been ordered to meet with diplomats and explain the situation. The " P - TOMS" is to be discarded as unworkable after the recent Supreme Court ruling. The LTTE has openly stated that it intends canvassing direct funding from the international community for the North - East. The idea is to campaign that the Sinhala dominated government will never allocate adequate funds and so ask for money directly to the LTTE or its fronts like the Tamil rehabilitation Organization. It remains a moot question as to whether the LTTE will be successful in this quest of seeking separate funds for the N - E tsunami relief or not. What is important however is to note that if full scale war does break out then all the LTTE plans and hopes of separate funding will be dashed. Reconstruction for tsunami victims in the North - East will be an impossible task with heavy fighting and security restrictions. Moreover the international community will not be as generous in a war situation as it could be in in a peace situation. Besides there is also the Karuna factor and the international situation. If full scale war erupts then Karuna and his "boys" will get legitimised. They will play an active role and that would only be to tiger disadvantage. The International situation too is problematic after incidents like the London bombing. If the LTTE abandons the peace process there could be repercussions. Despite the tiger - sponsored demonstrations calling for war the ordinary Tamil people are in no mood for war. In spite of the prevailing tensions the North has registered a 12% and East a10% ecomomic growth. The Tamil people are benefiting from the ceasefire. The tsunami victims also need peace for rehabilitation. There is also the question of elections being in the offing. Under such circumstances the LTTE will be very foolish to resume major war even if provoked. What seems likely is a scenario where the LTTE will be projecting a threat of war as a pressure tactic to get direct funding for North - East tsunami rehabilitation. It will coax or cajole the international community into parting with some direct funding as a quid pro quo for not resuming full scale war. Meanwhile the so called shadow war will gather steam and there will be more and more killings. There may also be some skirmishes. While tensions boil the danger of full scale war erupting may not happen. This then is the divide between LTTE war rhetoric and situational reality. A clear indication of the future could be apparent around the great heroes day on Nov 27th. The situation does not call for complacency. For one thing some "terrible" incident affecting the LTTE could result in the tigers going to war immediately regardless of consequences. As Thamilselvan says " If the government is unable to provide the required security to our cadres we will have to resort to our own arrangements to provide security. If the security forces then attempt to interfere, the CeaseFire Agreement will face difficulties". Here then lies the danger!